More people, more possibility: Introducing ExxonMobil's 2025 Global Outlook

We published the ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our View to 2050 today, just as the United States and Canada head into the annual Labor Day holiday weekend. The Outlook is our view of energy demand and supply over the next several decades. It’s full of projections from our best data scientists and others about energy, economic, environmental, and demographic trends worldwide. And it’s important because we use it as a basis for our long-term business planning.

It’s fitting the publication falls around Labor Day because one of the chief assumptions the Outlook makes is that over the next quarter century, the world will welcome a lot more people. In fact, we anticipate global population will grow by more than 1.5 billion.

That’s right. In 2050, the planet will have nearly 10 billion inhabitants, up from roughly 8 billion today. (That’s not just ExxonMobil’s estimate. This projection lines up with similar forecasts from the World Bank and the United Nations.)

What does that have to do with Labor Day? I’ll explain.

While many will use the holiday to bid summer farewell, I trust some will pause to reflect on the value and meaning of work. That means toasting the contributions of workers past and present, not to mention the promise of a brighter future.

That’s where the more than 1.5 billion new people come in. There’s a lot wrapped up in that number. Because it’s not just population growth; it represents a surge in human potential.

It’s easy to see more people as a challenge. We prefer to view it as a great opportunity, with many more people capable of performing productive labor, improving their lives and those of others. “More people” means more opportunity and more prosperity.

For everyone.

The rise in population goes hand-in-hand with another dramatic change we project in the Outlook – namely that by 2050, global GDP is expected to nearly double. Developing countries, where the bulk of the coming population growth will occur, should see their economies expand at twice the rate of developed ones. 

With this, billions of people should be lifted out of poverty and enjoy higher standards of living. Personal income worldwide is projected to rise by nearly 80%, driven by economic expansion and access to affordable, reliable energy.

These statistics aren’t just profoundly good news, they are transformative.

There’s a tendency to view population growth with alarm, as a strain on resources or threat to the environment. We disagree. We see each new person not just as another mouth to feed, but as a mind to think, and a pair of hands to build.

Human ingenuity is the ultimate resource. History shows that when people are empowered with opportunity and energy, they create solutions that improve life for everyone. They solve problems. They create abundance. That’s not wishful thinking – it’s what humanity has always done.

A year ago, I asked readers, “What’s your Outlook?” And I explained why mine is optimistic. The nexus between population growth and prosperity is yet another reason I believe better days lie ahead.

One last thought: It is true that more people and more prosperity mean more energy demand. And I acknowledge there is occasional handwringing about that fact.

Again, however, that view misses the point.

Energy isn’t just something we consume, it’s what enables progress. It’s what powers homes, fuels transportation, drives industry, and lifts communities. As we say in the report, “Nothing happens without it.” And ExxonMobil is investing in the technologies and solutions to help meet that demand and reduce emissions, because we believe it’s not an either/or proposition. It’s an “and” equation.

So, come this Labor Day, whether you’re swimming at the lake, sunning on the beach, or grilling in the backyard, it’s safe to say “Welcome” to the more than 1.5 billion people to come over the next 25 years. We should all be grateful that they’ll add to our labors to make the planet more prosperous, not just for themselves but for us all.

Chris Birdsall is director for economics and energy for Corporate Strategic Planning at ExxonMobil.