References and supplemental information

BNEF Li-ion Battery Price Survey, from BloombergNEF, 2024

BNEF Wind and Solar Tracker: Historical data from the Capacity and Generation Power tool tracker from BloombergNEF, 2025

IAEA PRIS Database: Publicly available data from the Power Reactor Information System, developed and maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency, 2025.

Edward Byers, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jarmo Kikstra, Robin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Marit Sanstad, Chris Smith, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Franck Lecocq, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Yamina Saheb, Anders Strømann, Harald Winkler, Cornelia Auer, Elina Brutschin, Matthew Gidden, Philip Hackstock, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Peter Kolp, Claire Lepault, Jared Lewis, Giacomo Marangoni, Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Ragnhild Skeie, Michaela Werning, Katherine Calvin, Piers Forster, Celine Guivarch, Tomoko Hasegawa, Malte Meinshausen, Glen Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Bjorn Samset, Julia Steinberger, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren. AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2022. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5886911 | url: data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/; Likely Below 2°C defined by category C3

EIA, Today in Energy (2018): U.S. monthly crude oil production exceeds 10 million barrels per day, highest since 1970 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34772

EIA, Natural Gas Explained https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/natural-gas-and-the-environment.php (accessed July 2025)

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IEA (2024), World Energy Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)

IEA (2024), Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/strategies-for-affordable-and-fair-clean-energy-transitions, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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IEA Transport Project: Where cited, this analysis is partially based on the historical data developed by the International Energy Agency, 2024 as part of its Transport project, all rights reserved, but the resulting analysis has been prepared by Exxon Mobil and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Energy Agency.

IRENA (2025) Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024

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United Stated Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Decarbonization Liftoff Report (2023)

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Supplemental information

Battery Density

• Battery cell energy density taken to be 330 Wh/kg as per latest CATL release: https://www.catl.com/en/research/technology/ (accessed July 2025)

• Diesel energy density per EIA: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/

Aviation battery weight

• Case is for fuel burned needed for Boston to Seattle Flight of 737-8 with Turbofans: From "737 MAX 8 & 9 fuel burn and operating performance" in Aircraft Commerce, #137 Aug/Sept 2021, 85% passenger payload case
• Aircraft specifications take from same reference
• Propulsive and thermal efficiency of turbofan take from Bjorn Fehrm, Leeham News, 12 April 2024, https://leehamnews.com/2024/04/12/bjorns-corner-new-engine-development-part-3-propulsive-efficiency/ and estimated from trendline in Pratt and Whitney ASA (Paris - 2015)
• Propeller propulsive efficiency taken from Johanning and Scholz, Propeller Efficiency Calculation in Conceptual Aircraft Design (2013)
• Battery cell energy density taken to be 330 Wh/kg as per latest CATL release: https://www.catl.com/en/research/technology/ (accessed July 2025)
• No additional battery energy density debits taken for battery pack and battery managements system, state-of-charge safety margins, cell ageing or fuel reserve as per Viswanathan (2022)
• Mass of turbofan plane with fuel and cargo is considered to be maximum take off weight.